All the Money Ruto Brokered With Biden That Trump’s Executive Orders Might Cancel

Kenya is facing the possibility of losing out on key deals worth approximately Ksh 10 billion following a new executive order signed by US President Donald Trump.

The order, issued shortly after he took office for a second term on Monday, calls for a 90-day freeze on foreign development aid as part of a broader evaluation of the efficiency and alignment of foreign aid programs with his administration’s policies.

This freeze could significantly affect Kenya, which in May 2024, under President William Ruto, signed several important agreements with outgoing President Joe Biden.

These deals spanned sectors including climate, education, security, and trade, and were expected to greatly benefit the Kenyan economy and its people.

However, Trump’s new executive order has cast doubt on the immediate future of these agreements.

Key Deals Under Threat

During President Ruto’s state visit to the White House in May 2024, Kenya and the US entered into multiple aid-dependent agreements, totaling an estimated Ksh 10 billion.

These agreements included a mix of grants, partnerships, and support, which have the potential to positively impact sectors such as climate change, education, security, and more.

1. Climate and Clean Energy Partnership
   One of the standout deals was a climate-focused partnership, under which Kenya was to receive a $60 million (approx. Ksh 7.76 billion) grant from the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC). This funding was earmarked for a four-year program to address the transportation needs of underserved groups in Kenya, with a focus on creating safer, climate-friendly public transport options. The uncertainty surrounding the freeze could now delay or even derail the full implementation of this vital initiative.
2. Security Cooperation and Modernization of Police Services
   Kenya was also designated a Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA) by the US, marking a historic moment as the first sub-Saharan African country to receive this designation. This status offers Kenya access to several defense and security benefits, including a new $7 million (approx. Ksh 905 million) partnership aimed at modernizing Kenya’s National Police Service. The partnership was expected to focus on staff development, training, and improved security cooperation between the two nations. However, this collaboration may now be at risk due to the executive order’s impact on foreign aid.
3. Education and Research Grants
   In the education sector, the Biden administration had pledged $3.3 million (approx. Ksh 427 million) for a program supporting 60 Kenyan undergraduate students to study in the US. Additionally, $500,000 (approx. Ksh 64.7 million) was set aside to foster collaborations between US and Kenyan universities and research institutions. This educational exchange and investment in Kenyan talent could face delays, or potentially be halted, depending on the full scope of Trump’s executive order.

The Freeze’s Potential Impact

While it’s still unclear which specific programs and countries will be affected by Trump’s executive order, the freeze on development aid is a significant concern for Kenya.

The country had positioned these deals as critical steps in enhancing bilateral relations with the US, advancing sectors such as climate action, education, and security.

The new executive order, which halts new obligations and disbursements of aid, puts the immediate future of these agreements in jeopardy. As the US assesses the “efficiencies” and “consistencies” of foreign aid, Kenya’s plans for growth in these key areas might be delayed or even canceled.

Looking Ahead

As Kenya braces for the potential loss of these development deals, it remains to be seen how the US administration will handle the freeze and whether future deals can still move forward once the 90-day evaluation period concludes.

In the meantime, Kenyan leaders will likely be seeking alternative sources of support for the impacted sectors, with hopes that the relationship between Kenya and the US will endure beyond the temporary freeze.

While President Ruto’s visit to Washington was seen as a major diplomatic win, the executive order by President Trump now raises questions about the sustainability of US aid to Kenya and the long-term impact on the nation’s growth trajectory.